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January 5, 2004

Rotary Club of Galveston Island

Harris "Shrub" Kempner, president of Kempner Capital Management and chair of the Galveston Economic Development Partnership, gave his annual economic forecast to the Rotary Club of Galveston Island today.  

"I have some predictions that are in line with what I perceive to be the majority and some that definitely aren't," Kempner said.

He predicted that the nation's economy will grow at a rate of four percent to four and one-half percent during the next year, inflation will remain at or stay below two percent, and longer term interest rates will "pick up some as the economic growth continues."

Kempner said there is a diversity of opinion on employment figures.

"I think that employment is already much stronger than the headlines would have you believe, and even payroll employment will increase substantially during the next year," he added.

Kempner cited a list of positive developments in Galveston and said that he is a "Pollyanna" regarding the island's outlook.

He said there are some factors that could have a negative impact on his positive outlook.  

"A successful terrorist attack on the U.S. Mainland," was one example he listed.  He also expressed concern that Congress might enact protectionist legislation that would have a negative impact.


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