February 15, 2005

Texas A&M University at Galveston

A Texas A&M University at Galveston professor has developed a detailed wave prediction system that is currently in use in the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of Maine and will be used soon in Prince William Sound.  Although the system will not predict tsunamis, it has proven valuable to mariners and coastal interests.

Vijay Panchang, head of the Department of Maritime Systems
Engineering, and research engineer Doncheng Li provide daily wave model predictions for much of the Texas coast, the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of Maine.  Their simulations, updated every 12 hours, provide a forecast for two days ahead. 

"The models we provide are based on very detailed information, such as seabed topography, offshore wave conditions, wind speed and direction and other factors," Panchang said.  "It's useful information for anyone in coastal waters.  Texas has a huge coastline, and Maine has more than 3,000 miles of coast. Recreational and fishing boats, cruise ships, commercial ships, and others can use this information." 

Panchang said coastal wave information also can be used to predict sediment transport and for engineering design, however he added that because the models use wind data, tsunamis that are created by undersea earthquakes can't be predicted. 

The system was successful in the accurate prediction of big waves in November 2003 in the Gulf of Maine.  Waves as high as 30 feet were recorded during one storm.  Last summer during Hurricane Ivan, a buoy located 60 miles south of the Alabama coast recorded a 60-foot wave.  

"There may have been higher waves because right after recording the 60-foot wave, the buoy snapped and stopped functioning," he said.  "Also, the 50-foot wave is an average measure of the sea-state, and the highest waves could be nearly twice as big.  Waves during storms can be quite high, and 50-foot waves are not uncommon."

Funding for the wave model prediction system is provided by NOAA Sea Grant, The Texas Coastal Management Program, the Prince William Sound Oil Spill Recovery Institute and the National Marine Fisheries Service.

For more information, visit http://www.tamug.edu/MASE and click on wave simulations.

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