...ARCTIC COLD FRONT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL AT
INLAND
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY AND OFF THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT...
...A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
LATER TODAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ICE STORM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...
The Arctic cold front moving through Texas has progressed
southward faster than previously expected.
Therefore, the times of arrival in Southeast Texas have been moved
up by 24 to 36 hours. At 8:00 AM
CST this morning, the Arctic cold front extended from Texarkana to
Palestine to College Station to
Caldwell to San Marcos to Fredericksburg to Dryden to Guadalupe
Pass.
The cold front should arrive in the Huntsville/Conroe area by 2:00
PM today...through most of the
Houston Metropolitan area by 6:00 PM...and off the coast at
Galveston by 10:00 PM tonight. Winds
will abruptly shift to the N and NW at speeds of 20 to 30 mph and
gusty inland...25 to 35 mph with
gusts of 40 to 45 mph along the coast...especially Galveston Island
and Bolivar Peninsula. Small
Craft Advisories are likely by tonight and these may be upgraded to
Gale Warnings. Tides will fall to
1 to 2 feet below normal by Sunday especially over inlets and
waterways in the northern and western
portions of Galveston Bay...Clear Lake...Clear Creek...Dickinson
Bayou and the Houston Ship
Channel. This may cause some vessels to experience
difficulty navigating shallow waters.
Following the frontal passage, temperatures will rapidly plunge into
the 30's and 40's within a 3 to 6
hour period. Temperatures over the next several days will have
little variance ranging from the upper
20's to upper 30's well inland to 30's and 40's along the coast.
Areas with significant accumulations
of ice will remain near or below freezing (32º) while areas with
little or no ice will be somewhat warmer.
At 8:00 AM...temperatures in the Lone Star State ranged from a balmy
72º at Houston (Bush Airport)
and several cities in the Lower Rio Grande Valley...to a frigid 9º
with light snow at Dalhart and a wind
chill factor of -3º. Rain...thunderstorms...freezing rain...sleet
and snow are occurring at many locations
in West Texas eastward through North Central Texas and northward
into Oklahoma.
A MAJOR ICE STORM EVENT IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 1 INCH WITH SEVERAL
INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ON TOP OF THE ICE LAYER. ANY TRAVEL IN NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE POSTPONED OR AVOIDED UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER NUMEROUS ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES...TRAFFIC
ACCIDENTS
AND WIDESPREAD POWER FAILURES IN THESE AREAS.
The faster movement of the Arctic cold front increases the
possibility of a more widespread winter
storm with freezing rain and sleet over Southeast Texas extending
all the way to the coast..and a
longer duration of the event continuing until Wednesday. The
National Weather Service Forecast
Office in League City is considering the possible issuance of a
WINTER STORM WATCH for all or
portions of Southeast Texas that may be issued later today or
Sunday. A Winter Storm Watch
indicates the possibility of freezing rain and sleet with
significant ice accumulations of at least 1/4
inch during the next 24 to 48 hours. Whenever the situation becomes
more imminent, the watch is
upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning or Ice Storm Warning. The first
issuance may only include the
northern and western counties in Southeast Texas but this will
likely be expanded to more counties
further south and east.
TRAVEL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
POSTPONED OR AVOIDED UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY
AS MANY ROADS AND
BRIDGES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS DUE TO
ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
At this time, it appears that areas along and
north of Interstate 10 (including Houston) will have the
best chance of seeing ice accumulations.
However, depending on how low temperatures drop over
the coastal counties, it is also possible
that ice will occur over these areas, as well. Should this
materialize, there will be a threat of power
failures caused by the weight of accumulating ice on power
lines and trees falling into power lines.
Therefore, plan on having extra blankets on hand or a safety-
approved alternate power source such as an
electric generator for plugging in a portable heater.
Remember, NEVER RUN A GENERATOR INDOORS OR IN AN
ENCLOSED AREA as they emit
deadly carbon monoxide fumes that are colorless
and odorless. It would also be a good idea to have a backup supply
of food and water on hand in case power failures become widespread
over the area
delaying power being restored by utility
companies.
There will be little chance of seeing any snow
in Southeast Texas as the thermal profile of the atmosphere will
result in very cold air near the surface but much warmer air (above
freezing) a few thousand feet above the ground. This is a classic
“temperature inversion” scenario that often occurs in winter over
Southeast Texas favoring freezing rain and sleet rather than snow.
Much further north, there will be a chance of accumulating snow from
New Mexico eastward through the Texas Panhandle and North Texas and
into Oklahoma where the layer of cold air will extend further upward
into the atmosphere.
All persons in Southeast Texas should monitor
future weather forecasts and listen for watches, warnings or
advisories that may become necessary. Future e-mail updates will be
sent by the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory as conditions warrant.
Jim O’Donnel
Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
