7:40 PM CDT Sunday, August 3, 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INCLUDING ALL OF
HOUSTON/GALVESTON METROPOLITAN AREA. THIS MAY BE UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE WATCH OR HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...
...PERSONS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL ON TUESDAY MORNING...
...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ARRIVING ON GALVESTON ISLAND AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS...
...JAMAICA BEACH CITY OFFICIALS WILL BE HOLDING A SPECIAL MEETING ON MONDAY MORNING...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect along the upper Texas coast from Port O'Connor, TX eastward to west of Intracoastal City, LA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect from Intracoastal City eastward to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Along the mid and upper Texas coast...the Tropical Storm Watch includes: Victoria, Calhoun, Jackson, Matagorda,
Brazoria, Galveston, Harris, Chambers, Jefferson and Orange Counties. This includes all of Matagorda Bay, Galveston
Bay and Sabine Lake and the Houston/Galveston and Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange Metropolitan areas.
All or portions of this area may be upgraded to a HURRICANE WATCH or HURRICANE WARNING later tonight or Monday morning according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Jamaica Beach Mayor Victor Pierson has advised the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory that Jamaica Beach city officials will be holding a special meeting on Monday morning and will be making appropriate decisions concerning evacuation. Please listen for the latest news information in case an evacuation is either recommended or ordered.
The Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory is getting numerous inquiries as to what to expect from Edouard. I am recommending the following advice to Galveston Island residents including the city of Jamaica Beach:
WINDS: You should expect the landfall of a severe tropical storm and possibly a Category One hurricane along the upper Texas coast on Tuesday morning between 6:00 AM and Noon CDT. Rremember, this is the expected arrival time of the CENTER (EYE). Actual weather conditions will begin deteriorating on Galveston Island as early as Monday afternoon with wind gusts in squalls of 30 to 50 mph between 6:00 pm and Midnight on Monday Night...increasing to gusts of 40 to 60 mph between Midnight and 6:00 AM on Tuesday morning...and gusts of 60 to 90 mph between 6:00 AM and Noon on Tuesday morning. These wind gust estimates are based on the current official track of the National Hurricane Center which shows a direct hit on Jamaica Beach and Galveston Island. These wind gust estimates are subject to change on future JBWO updates.
TIDES (STORM SURGE): I've been hearing a lot of misinformation and rumors going around about how high the tides may get. I can tell you that because this storm will be making landfall within 48 hours, it will NOT have time to build up an exceptionally high storm surge. Therefore, I would disregard any information you might be hearing about "tides 6 feet above normal". Instead, I would expect tides to be more on the order of about 3 to 4 feet above normal near and just to the right of the point of landfall. This means an actual tide gauge reading of 4 to 5 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW). This will cause some minor flooding of the lowest roadways in the city of Jamaica Beach and elsewhere on west Galveston Island. It will also cause tidewater to overtop many bulkheads, piers and low-lying yards on the bay side of the island and beach/dune overwash from high surf on the Gulf side of the island.
STORM PREPARATIONS: Normally, you would wait for the Tropical Storm Watch to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning prior to making storm preparations. However, as mentioned above, there will be less than 24 hours from now before the onset of deteriorating weather conditions. Therefore, it is imperative that all preparations for this tropical storm/hurricane begin in earnest now and be rushed to completion no later than 9:00 pm CDT Monday evening.
POTENTIAL INTENSITY: As I stated previously, I would prepare for a severe tropical storm and possibly a Category One hurricane. However, there is even the possibility of further intensification into a low end Category Two hurricane if Edouard undergoes a period of rapid strengthening prior to landfall. You should be prepared for this possibility.
Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory